Stock Market Counterfactuals

December was an awful month for stocks.
The S&P 500 fell up to 15% at one point, culminating in the Christmas Eve shellacking which saw stocks fall almost 3% a day after they had fallen 2%. Stocks did rally more than 6.5% from that point until the end of the month.
All told, the S&P was down almost 9% for December and fell 19.8% from the end of September through the close on Christmas Eve.
A family member joked on…